The Stock Market Casino
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September 30, 2016

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7-29-2016 4-25-21 PM

Welcome once again to the casino where anyone can be a winner or loser dependent on the day.

It’s been an up and down week with high volatility. The month of September ends with a “must have” rally to make conditions seem better than they are frankly. The rally Friday was primarily based on a rumor that troubled Deutsche Bank ($DB) would settle a +$5 billion claim with the U.S. Justice Department over prior financial practices. This meant to some the banks troubles in Europe would/could also be alleviated. This seems a stretch of course given the disconnect of one issue to another; but, that’s the way things on Wall Street these days.

Let’s remember it’s month and quarter-end for September therefore portfolio management fees are on the line for da boyz.

Leading the charge higher Friday to close the week and month of September were in the oversold financial sector led by banks naturally.

Nevertheless, to my eyes, I don’t see anything settled this day other than a classic short squeeze. Further, as the oil rally from mid-week settled only modestly higher, many questions about the reliability of a proposed cap on supply came into play.

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

9-30-2016 3-30-15 PM

Volume was modest Friday but with an ugly close. Breadth per the WSJ was positive and Money Flow thru Thursday was negative for the week. 

9-30-2016 3-34-33 PM

12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day

 

 

 

9-30-2016 3-48-16 PM KBE

 

 

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XLP WEEKLY

    XLP WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • XLP WEEKLY

    XLP WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • JJC WEEKLY

    JJC WEEKLY

  • DBC MONTHLY

    DBC MONTHLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • AAXJ WEEKLY

    AAXJ WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance. 

9-30-2016 3-19-44 PM

HI/LO INDICATORS DAILY

9-30-2016 3-20-06 PM hilo daily

HI/LO INDICATORS WEEKLY

9-30-2016 3-22-19 PM hilo weekly

HI/LO INDICATORS MONTHLY

9-30-2016 3-25-18 PM hilo monthly

To sum up a volatile week it’s best to view the weekly chart to get the best view of conditions including our HI/LO readings. Once again these show us in a neutral/bearish condition.

9-30-2016 7-21-07 PM SPY

 

It was a wild week with a lot of day-to-day volatility. Price manipulation was the order of the day Friday as conflicts of interest given end of quarter fee income considerations dominated the action.

We enter the even more volatile month of October which will test investor’s mettle. So fasten your seat belts.

Let’s see what happens.

...

Headshot David Fry xsmall

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

Named in the Top 10 ETF Blogs Every Serious ETF Investor Should Read in 2016.

Named as one of the Top 22 ETF Experts You Need To Follow on Twitter for continuing to deliver high quality analysis and commentary through the ETFDigest Twitter feed.

ETF Digest was named in the Top 50 Investing Blogs.

Ranked #16 in the Top 25 Best ETF Newsletters in 2015.

ETF Digest was awarded one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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Disclaimer

ETF Digest™
 

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,212.402.600.22 % 08:15
WTI Crude Futr29.10-0.34-1.15 %16:22
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB158.87-1.50-0.93 %16:28
US Dollar96.900.150.16 % 16:42
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX24.11-1.29-5.08 %16:14
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil953.9610.36 %-0.52 %-7.94 %
Russia376.0882.60 %-6.20 %-7.08 %
India405.4322.63 %-5.21 %-11.78 %
China49.5613.54 %-4.42 %-16.57 %