Markets Ignore Weak Economic Data
0
November 26, 2014

11-26-2014 8-31-25 PM rockwell

The only sectors to respond to the litany of negative economic data were bonds (stronger with 30-year year at, gasp!, 2.93%) and the dollar (weaker). But stocks seem oblivious to the data and, for the most part, were able to hang on as momentum remains primary to wrap up November.

We’ve had a boatload of economic data the past two days including many disappointments Wednesday including: Mortgage Applications drop -4.3 vs prior 4.0; Durable Goods Orders mixed 0.4% vs -0.5% expected & prior -1.3% and ex-Transportation-0.9% vs 0.5% expected & prior -0.2%; Jobless Claims rise to 3 month high, 313K vs 286K expected & prior 292K; Personal Income miss 0.2% vs 0.4% & prior 0.2% while Spending flat 0.2% vs 0.0% expected & prior -0.2%; Chicago PMI drops sharply to 60.8 vs 63.2 expected & prior 66.2
Consumer Sentiment falls in line with Confidence report to 88.8 vs 90 expected & prior 89.4; New Home Sales flat and miss 458K vs 470K expected & prior 455K and Pending Home Sales drop -1.1% vs 0.6% expected & prior 0.3%.

Again, thanks to Zero Hedge, it’s been discovered revisions to Personal Income & Spending in yesterday’s new GDP report (3.9% vs 3.50%) were misleading as only August data was included in the revisions but not September and October. Thus we have the following charts which allows the BEA to alter fudge the numbers making GDP look better.

 11-26-2014 8-32-36 PMpersonal savings

11-26-2014 8-34-29 PM personal outlays

Leading market sectors higher included: China (GXC), China (PEK), Hong Kong (EWH), India (EPI), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), REITs (IYR), Semiconductors (SMH), Utilities (XLU), Tech (QQQ), Emerging Markets (EEM), Brazil (EWZ), Germany (EWG), UK (EWU), Turkey (TUR), Australia (EWA), South Korea (EWY), Coal (KOL), Biotech (IBB), Healthcare (XLV), Bonds (TLT) and Palladium (PALL).

Leading market sectors lower included: Energy (XLE), Oil Service Holders (OIH), Gold Miners (GDX), Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), Natural Gas Producers (FCG), Silver (SLV), Silver Miners (SIL), Russia (RSX), Solar (TAN), RVE Hard Assets (HAP), Retail (XRT), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Homebuilders (ITB), Japan (EWJ), Vietnam (VNM), Chile (ECH), Canadian Energy (ENY), Timber (CUT) and Natural Gas (UNG).

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume perhaps set new record lows while stocks eked out new record gains. Breadth per the WSJ was mildly positive to mixed.

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 11-26-2014 8-36-01 PM diary

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

 

Closing Summary

A short post Wednesday covers it for us.

We wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving!

Let’s see what happens.

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

He is the author of "Create Your own ETF Hedge Fund: A Do-It-Yourself Strategy for Private Wealth Management" published by Wiley Finance and "The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities, A Companion Guide to Building Your ETF Portfolio"



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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,181.50-9.30-0.78 %11:30
WTI Crude Futr69.00-4.69-6.36 %10:56
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB258.85-7.80-2.93 %11:08
US Dollar88.190.000.00 % 16:42
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX12.490.423.48 % 11:08
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil2127.973-0.62 %-2.02 %-4.06 %
Russia548.255-1.91 %-8.24 %-30.33 %
India526.6140.39 %1.33 % 29.29 %
China65.038-0.40 %1.13 % 3.07 %