Print

COMPROMISE SEEMS FUTILE AS CLIFF NEARS

November 09, 2012

openingimage

Boehner stepped forward Thursday with a softer tone on compromise with the administration. Then the president invited all to meeting next week to discuss the fiscal cliff and to seek some compromise. But just a short time ago the WH stated the president will veto any bill that extends existing tax cuts for the wealthy. This is reminiscent of the Simpson-Bowles Commission aftermath when the much awaited report was tossed into the trash can with a “thanks for coming” dismissal.

Now we just have learned CIA Director David Patraeus has resigned over an exta-marital affair. Just after the election—how convenient. He was probably outed by CIA insiders. Things just get curiouser and curiouser.

I would put forward this now, why don’t we just go over the cliff, get it over with and let things get sorted out from the wreckage? It would be tough certainly but we should’ve gone over the cliff by letting the banks fail in 2008-2009 putting it behind us.

Stocks being short-term oversold attempted a rally but there wasn’t much follow-through or conviction behind it. This is due to the lack of any sense of compromise over the fiscal cliff.

Economic data featured the over-rated U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report (84.9 vs 81.5 expected). The index is based heavily on stock market prices which carried over from October and I prefer the Conference Board’s data as it isn’t so skewed by markets.

The dollar (UUP) continues to be strong while uniquely gold (GLD) also rises as investors scramble for safe havens. Bonds (TLT) also reversed course from earlier losses as prices rose. Commodities were mildly positive mostly on the strength of energy. As to this, oil (USO) was pressured higher by an admitted Iranian strike on a U.S. drone of which we seem to have so many. Tech (XLK) bounced as Apple (AAPL) shares were able to catch a bid. Semiconductors (SOXX) were also stronger but homebuilders (ITB) were weak.

Volume remains elevated still and breadth per the WSJ was rather flat.

Follow us on Twitter and join the conversation on Facebook

Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers (as seen below) to exit overbought/oversold conditions.



  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • SOXX WEEKLY

    SOXX WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • IBB WEEKLY

    IBB WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • IEF WEEKLY

    IEF WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • HYG WEEKLY

    HYG WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • JJC WEEKLY

    JJC WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • UGA WEEKLY

    UGA WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • JO WEEKLY

    JO WEEKLY

  • BAL WEEKLY

    BAL WEEKLY

  • COW WEEKLY

    COW WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EIS WEEKLY

    EIS WEEKLY

  • AFK WEEKLY

    AFK WEEKLY

  • EWU WEEKLY

    EWU WEEKLY

  • EWQ WEEKLY

    EWQ WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWT WEEKYL

    EWT WEEKYL

  • EWW WEEKLY

    EWW WEEKLY

  • ARGT WEEKLY

    ARGT WEEKLY

  • GXG WEEKLY

    GXG WEEKLY



Closing Comments

The week ends with a whimper as the rally bulls started petered-out.  The fiscal cliff deal will continue to haunt markets. The best that can come of it for now is a one year extension but even that doesn’t look likely.

Obama has no election to worry about unless he frets about congressional elections in 2014. But he believes he has a mandate to soak the rich and “spread the wealth around” as he famously stated in 2008. The country has changed and is no longer a center-right nation. It’s hard to say what we really are now other than a society that likes big government and the benefits it can bring…until it can’t.

More from ETF Digest

  • Top 10 Asia-Pacific Regional ETFs
  • Top 10 Global Building & Infrastructure ETFs
  • Top 10 Commodity Producer ETFs
  • Top 10 Utilities ETFs
  • Top 10 Healthcare ETFs
  • Top 10 Multinational ETFs
  • Top 10 European Regional ETFs
  • Top 10 U.S. Large & All Cap Sector ETFs
  • Top 10 Financial ETFs
  • Top 10 Global Real Estate ETFs
  • Top 10 U.S. Real Estate ETFs
  • Top 10 Industrial Sector ETFs
  • Top 10 Energy ETFs
  • Top 10 Technology ETFs
  • Top 5 Biotech ETFs
  • Top 10 Large Cap ETFs
  • Top 10 Mid Cap ETFs
  • Top 10 Global Government Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 High Yield & Emerging Market Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 Municipal Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 Corporate Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 Total Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 U.S. Treasury Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 Long Term U.S. Treasury, Agency & Inflation Protected Bond ETFs
  • Top 10 Materials Sector ETFs
  • Top 10 Consumer Discretionary ETFs
  • Top 10 Precious Metals ETFs

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.