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MARKETS CALM ON QUIET DAY

November 12, 2012

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I suppose we could ask Cliff what his views might be and they might actually be as rational as some of the stuff I’ve been reading. I see a leading democrat, Senator Patty Murray (Washington) stated it would be okay to go over the cliff then return later to work something else out. Some say the most likely compromise would be an extension of everything but that would just leave things hanging out there. Obama believes he has a mandate rightly or wrongly and if that’s the case he would use it right away rather than wait. In the meantime those wanting a higher millionaire’s tax (Buffett et al) haven’t flooded pay.gov yet with their voluntary contributions.

The U.S. experienced one of those semi-holidays, Veteran’s Day, with most markets open while bond markets were closed. In Japan the economy contracted 3.5% pushing the country to 5 recessions in 15 years. That must be some kind of failed Keynesian record. China reported a 19% decline in credit which shows what’s happening to consumers there. India noted a decline of .4% in industrial production vs +2.8% expected. Meanwhile inflation rose to 9.75%--they don’t do “core” rates as done in the U.S.—silly them!

Meanwhile in the eurozone no deal has been reached for Greece despite vote and Spanish bonds sunk in price but U.S. stocks shrugged off all this bad news as the machines were fully engaged.

The dollar (UUP) rallied slightly while gold (GLD) fell slightly. Commodities (DBC) were slightly weaker led down by oil (USO) and grains (JJG) primarily. Bonds (IEF) and (TLT) were flat overall. Stocks were led higher by  

biotech (IBB) and lower by homebuilders (ITB). Overall not much happened on this holiday.

Volume was light and breadth per the WSJ was slightly negative.

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Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers (as seen below) to exit overbought/oversold conditions.


  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • IBB WEEKLY

    IBB WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • IEF WEEKLY

    IEF WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • JJG WEEKLY

    JJG WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EEB WEEKLY

    EEB WEEKLY



Closing Comments

There was some chatter about the lower VIX Monday but then if you look to longer dated VIX options you’ll see it’s rising almost like contango with futures.

There isn’t much in the way of economic data for Tuesday but more will hit markets from Wednesday forward including options expiration on Friday.


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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.