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ECONOMIC DATA UNHELPFUL FOR BULLS

November 15, 2012

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According to data released today the eurozone has entered recession, which would make two since 2009. China stocks fell once again post the Peoples Party Congress which only succeeded in naming a new leader Xi Jinping. Xi, a conservative, offered a bewildering array of hero’s beginning with Mao and ending with his immediate predecessor. The PBOC cut interest rates to curb the rise in the yuan (CYB) while the yen (FXY) (YCS) continued to fall.

U.S. Jobless Claims soared (439K vs 376K expected & prior revised higher to 361K). Most of this was blamed on Sandy but the largest number of jobless claims came from Pennsylvania and Ohio. The Empire State Mfg Survey dropped (-5.2 vs -5 expected & prior -6.16); the Philly Fed Survey was a stinker (-10.7 vs 4.5 expected a& prior 5.7); and, the CPI was basically flat and hardly worth mentioning (or even believing in).

It’s reported that the FHA (Federal Housing Authority) is about to exhaust its reserves available due to mortgage delinquencies so be prepared for another taxpayer bailout. Currently the FHA has insured 739,000 loans that are 90 days or longer past due or are in foreclosure. This could total as much as $100 billion. These are the kind of facts bulls hollering housing recovery can’t seem to understand. And, all of this is happening when household formation in the U.S. is nearing an all-time low. So, I guess “Flip That House” TV show will only have government bureaucrats and bankers as the audience.

Along these same lines, and something financial markets should be focused on like a laser, is so-called Generations X and Y may be lost as potential investors since beyond social media and Apple they seem interested in little else. After all two bear markets in a decade hardly lead to investment enthusiasm does it?

Behemoth Walmart (WMT) disappointed with a revenue miss of $113.93 billion vs $114.89 billion. The outlook also missed analyst’s expectations at earnings in a range of $4.88-$4.93 vs $4.94 expected. This report negatively affected the retail sector (XRT) and (XLY).

The markets are short-term much oversold and rallies could happen at any time for any, even the most specious, reasons. I posted today a commentary “The Great Depression Part 2, Will the Future Follow the Past”. The monthly charts from the 1930s are eerily similar to the current period but not necessarily a prediction.

The dollar (UUP) was only slightly higher while a gold (GLD) bear raid was in full swing. Commodity markets (DBC) were weaker on the dollar and lousy economic data. Within the sector Oil (USO) was weaker despite Israeli and Hamas cross border bombardments. Bonds (TLT) (IEF) were flat while the more speculative high yield sector (HYG) continues to trade down with stocks.

Volume Thursday was still high. Bulls tried some rally attempts throughout the day Thursday but couldn’t pull-off a major reversal off. Breadth per the WSJ was still negative and just builds on oversold conditions.

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Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers (as seen below) to exit overbought/oversold conditions.

  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • DELL WEEKLY

    DELL WEEKLY

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • SOXX WEEKLY

    SOXX WEEKLY

  • WMT WEEKLY

    WMT WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • DVY WEEKLY

    DVY WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • EMB WEEKLY

    EMB WEEKLY

  • HYG WEEKLY

    HYG WEEKLY

  • MUB WEEKLY

    MUB WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • YCS WEEKLY

    YCS WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • UGA WEEKLY

    UGA WEEKLY

  • UNG WEEKLY

    UNG WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWY WEEKLY

    EWY WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWP WEEKLY

    EWP WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • RSX WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY

  • $NAHL DAILY

    $NAHL DAILY



Closing Comments

The NYMO doesn’t get much more oversold than we’re seeing now so I would expect some sort of rally. At the same time the low level of the VIX is “vexing” many since the sharp declines we’re seeing haven’t seen investors buying put protection. So both indicators are contradicting each other.

Friday brings options expiration which should enhance volatility and may in itself cause a rally weirdly. Also on tap is Industrial Production. It won’t take much to get the animal spirits flowing for bulls. But currently any rally would just be a mechanical/computer event.

The spin to ignore the dreadful Jobless Claims due to Sandy was ridiculous. Most economic continues to show contraction. The Fed can only do so much and has admitted it.  


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The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.