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GREECE & FISCAL CLIFF VIE FOR CREDIBILITY

November 26, 2012

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The new week begins with more late night negotiations in the eurozone for the umpteenth iteration for a Greek fix. Most of the deal choices finance ministers have considered appear unsubstantial like accepting Greek bonds as collateral for aid or lowering interest repayments and etc. But no matter ministers will spin whatever they do as successful. They may even launch more meetings with some bridge loan to buy time.

Meanwhile in the U.S. politicians are digging in for some tough negotiations for the fiscal cliff. Even if there’s a brief trip over the cliff something will be done to “save the day” before we splat. Taxes will go up, perhaps second home deductions will disappear and some token cuts (mostly to defense) will appear.

In Japan there’s a spirited battle taking place about Bank of Japan policies regarding easing policies including QE. To quell the dispute the current head asserted easing alone won’t solve the problems facing the economy.

And in more debt related news Argentina continues to saying no to honoring its debts. This is an easy sell to the populace in many South American countries.

Taken together these should remind everyone the debt pickle the world is in.

Lastly from overseas the Bank of England announced a successor to Merwyn King by naming former, wait for it…Goldman Sachs honcho Mark Carney as its new head. Carney at one point during his tenure with GS was advising Russia on its debt situation during its financial crisis while at the same time the company was shorting Russian debt. So I guess he’s qualified to deal with sovereign debt issues as GS starts to take over most of Europe and other central banks.

The post mortem (beyond those shoppers getting maimed, maced or killed) on Black Friday shopping remains mixed. Some believe the week’s total sales overall were very good when including Thursday and online sales.

Economic data in the U.S. showed a shockingly poor Dallas Fed Survey (-2.8 vs 4.7 expected & prior 1.8) meaning economic growth was in decline. And the Fed is busy with bond buying QE now which you can view here.

In hedge fund follies, Mathew Martoma is either going to jail or will make a deal with authorities to give up a higher up at SAC for his record insider trading activities. That could get very interesting.

The dollar (UUP) was flat while gold (GLD) also did little. Bonds (IEF) and (TLT) recovered from the previous week’s losses. Commodities (DBC) were modestly lower taken down mostly by energy and oil (USO) while base metals (JJC) were unchanged. Stocks were led higher by tech (XLK) while retail (XRT) and (XLY) were weaker.

Volume didn’t improve significantly after the ridiculously light affair from the holiday week. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed.

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Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers (as seen below) to exit overbought/oversold conditions.


  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • IGN WEEKLY

    IGN WEEKLY

  • XLK WEEKLY

    XLK WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IEF WEEKLY

    IEF WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • JJC WEEKLY

    JJC WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • UGA WEEKLY

    UGA WEEKLY

  • UGN WEEKLY

    UGN WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWA WEEKLY

    EWA WEEKLY

  • EWC WEEKLY

    EWC WEEKLY

  • EWU WEEKYL

    EWU WEEKYL

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWH WEEKLY

    EWH WEEKLY

  • EWY WEEKLY

    EWY WEEKLY

  • EPHE WEEKLY

    EPHE WEEKLY

  • IDX WEEKLY

    IDX WEEKLY

  • AAXJ WEEKLY

    AAXJ WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • RSX WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY



Closing Comments

Very few traders seemed to be manning their positions given how light the action was Monday.

As this is being written it appears there’s a deal in the eurozone (the umpteenth) to fix Greece. All Greece has to do is grow its GDP by €50 billion by 2020 and another €20 billion in the next two years. This is quite bullish superficially although Greece reaching these targets is unlikely and perhaps laughable. So making numbers up that will appease markets while ministers are still in office kicks the can.

The euro will trade higher on the news posted and theoretically so too will gold.  

Tuesday brings Durable Goods Orders, Case Shiller HPI, FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Mfg Index and Consumer Confidence.


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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.