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BULLISH ALGOS SEIZE THE TAPE

November 28, 2012

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Wednesday started with poor overall news. New Home Sales plummeted missing expectations (368K vs 387K expected & prior revised from 389K to 369K) which was quite a shock. Later the large hedge fund SAC received an SEC Wells Notice meaning charges would soon follow perhaps even implicating Steve Cohen. Rumors followed thereafter indicating there was selling in what might be SAC related positions to meet what was presumed to be their positions. Markets overall fell sharply including financials (XLF) and other sectors with selling widespread. This included a bear raid on gold (GLD) and other metals post options expiration which can often happen as those with big money can squeeze those holders of options now converted to futures contracts. But this selling implied a massive risk-off environment present.

To the rescue swooped in Boehner to suggest the fiscal cliff dialogue was moving forward and recent meetings were “constructive”. (Let’s remember Boehner likes trading stocks.) Obama followed shortly with brief comments stating he expected to have a deal done by Christmas. Algos jumped on this news and arrested selling almost instantly. You see they just look at headlines but don’t spend much time looking under the hood. It was a remarkable turnaround confirming who, what and how machines are dominating markets. And the day after Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein visited the White House Thursday Mitt Romney will be having lunch with Obama. He’ll be served crow no doubt.

Elsewhere the Fed Beige Book showed economic growth to be modest which seems to remain their primary description over the past 6 months. Markets yawned at the news.

Overseas, and probably faster than even the most cynical bear would imagine, German Finance Minister Schauble stated Greece will need more help. Wow, that was quick!  Germany’s most popular tabloid Bild published a scathing rebuke entitled “The Never Ending Story”. In it they state when referring to Greece: “The patient dies and the paramedic goes bust

Chinese stocks fell to 2009 lows as trading volume is drying in Shanghai. In a contrast the Philippines (EPHE) reported GDP growth at 7.1% vs 5.4% expected & prior 6%) as the country is on a great growth path.

In Europe most share indexes recovered from losses before the close in concert with the Boehner/Obama “happy talk”.

The dollar (UUP) was nearly unchanged after rallying sharply early in trading. Gold (GLD) as indicated was hit hard by selling which is well-described here. Commodities (DBC) were dragged lower by energy (USO) in a “risk off” pattern little noticed by the stock market clearly. Bonds (TLT) sharply higher early on a flight to quality based on early news reversed course with stock market rally.

Volume on this crazy reversal day was higher as shorts were squeezed once again. Breadth per the WSJ was positive.

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  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPY WEEKLY

    SPY WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • SOXX WEEKLY

    SOXX WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • HYG WEEKLY

    HYG WEEKLY

  • EMLC WEEKLY

    EMLC WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • UGA WEEKLY

    UGA WEEKLY

  • UNG WEEKLY

    UNG WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • JJG WEEKLY

    JJG WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • PEK WEEKLY

    PEK WEEKLY

  • EPHE WEEKLY

    EPHE WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • RSX WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY



Closing Comments

Thursday is GDP data and Jobless Claims once again. We’re just about done with earnings with some still to come from retailers primarily.


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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.