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DUELING TALKING POINTS ON CLIFF

November 30, 2012

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Friday was the last trading day on the month and as usual portfolio managers were keen to do a little window dressing.

The news backdrop wasn’t supportive of a rally but the financial media was determined to spin it that way. First, Personal Income & Spending was weak (Income flat & Spending -.2%) but that was blamed on Sandy. But ,we should remember that Sandy was only a three-day event at the end of October. It’s just as logical to assert spending increased late in the month as store inventory was wiped out before the storm. Second, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 50.4 vs 50.3 expected, and was spun as a positive until you looked at the details. New orders showed significant monthly contraction (45.3 vs 50.3) and prices paid were much higher. This means that companies are paying more for raw materials and other goods and most likely will pass them on to their customers, which will either compress profit margins or be inflationary.

We limped into the close of trading Friday with markets little changed overall. The dollar (UUP) was flat but gold (GLD) once again saw more selling. Commodities (DBC) once again were higher with gains in base metals (DBB) and oil (USO). Bonds (TLT) were slightly lower. Stocks were led higher by a narrow group too difficult to even list.

As a consequence this post is quite short.

For members there is long list of DeMark sequential set-up 9s now posted. I prefer weekly views but the daily can provide a heads up that a reversal in trend could be coming even if it would be short-term in nature.

Also, as we approach the year end, and with so many U.S. equity ETFs to choose from you might benefit from our ebook: The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities

Both Obama and republican leaders made speeches for the benefit of their respective base. Treasury Secretary Geithner had the unenviable task of delivering the WH opening (or at least public) proposal for the fiscal cliff. As noted last night it consisted of $1.6 trillion in new taxes, including eliminating the dividend preference to ordinary income, launching a $50 billion stimulus (as yet defined or for whom) but little in the way of spending cuts. Mitch McConnell is reported to have burst out laughing at this which in itself is funny.

Volume was light as stocks were well marked into the close. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed.

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  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • TIP WEEKLY

    TIP WEEKLY

  • MUB WEEKLY

    MUB WEEKLY

  • DVY WEEKLY

    DVY WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EEB WEEKLY

    EEB WEEKLY



Closing Comments

Evidently the fiscal cliff politics were unsettled enough not to bother bulls or bears. The end of month window dressing appears to have been more important.

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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.