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MARKET SECTOR ROTATION UNDERWAY

December 05, 2012

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U.S. economic news was unremarkable overall. ADP Employment data disappointed missing for the 6th time in 9 months (118K vs 125K expected & prior 158K). Productivity increased (2.9% vs 2.8% expected & prior 1.9%) but costs fell (-1.9% vs expected -.9% & prior -0.1%), meaning wages took a hit again. Factory Orders declined 0.8% vs -0.1% expected & prior 4.8%). ISM Non-Mfg Index 53.7 vs 53 expected & prior 54.2) but within the data the employment number plunged to 50.3 from 54.9—it’s this under the hood stuff the media and algos don’t pay attention to.

In overseas markets the focus was squarely on China where there was “talk” of more “potential” infrastructure spending along with easing rules allowing insurance companies to invest in banks. Stocks there rallied sharply (+2.9%) shifting the focus away from the fiscal cliff to more growth from China. Of significance down the road India’s congress passed a bill allowing foreign retailers to open stores in the country—hello Wal-Mart (WMT).

Not that it mattered to U.S. stock bulls much Wednesday but Spain was unable to sell the €4.5 billion in bonds Wednesday with only €4.25 billion placed. Also the eurozone reported its ISM Non-Mfg Index down for the 10th straight month as much of the region lingers in recession—no matter stocks rose. Also, Greece was downgraded to CCC by S&P after it is now in “selective default”. I guess this is bullish as well.

Gold (GLD) prices continued their decline falling modestly. As you might remember from Monday’s heavy selling there was one large seller in Tokyo mid-day which drove prices sharply lower. We learned today, Goldman Sachs has suggested to clients to sell gold. Could it be GS was that seller in Tokyo? What a shock, eh? Meanwhile the dollar (UUP) rose while commodities (DBC) overall were mostly flat. Growth in China and perhaps repair damage from Sandy affects demand for copper (JJC) and other base metals (DBB) benefited.

Overall, U.S. stocks were led by financials (XLF), banks (KBE), and insurers (KIE) as money continues to rotate from tech. Large banks as primary dealers love POMO and use proceeds for trading. It might be the Fed will put POMO on steroids if we go over the cliff. Tech (XLK) continues to suffer as heavyweight Apple (AAPL) leads selling. Bonds (TLT) remained only slightly weaker on the day. Citigroup (C) announced it would fire 11,000 workers and the stock rose.

Are financials then the safe place to be with the fiscal cliff? Good question as Deutsche Bank is being accused of hiding more than $12 billion in losses to avoid bailout. Wow!

Volume was higher but breadth overall per the WSJ was mixed to flat.

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  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • BAC WEEKLY

    BAC WEEKLY

  • C WEEKLY

    C WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • KIE WEEKLY

    KIE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • RWX WEEKLY

    RWX WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • FB WEEKLY

    FB WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • JJC WEEKLY

    JJC WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • UGA WEEKLY

    UGA WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • JJG WEEKLY

    JJG WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWA WEEKLY

    EWA WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY

  • AAXJ WEEKLY

    AAXJ WEEKLY



Closing Comments

Wednesday was a very strange day as tech indexes and financials went their separate ways. After the close S&P downgraded Greece to CCC and “selected default” and it’s strange that the ECB will use their defaulted debt as collateral on loans. How will markets react? Perhaps with just a shrug as investors have done with other dreadful news. Then DB hiding $12 billion in bad assets at various investment firms was also late-breaking. There is also the ongoing insider trading story reverberating with SAC and now Wells Fargo.

In case you didn’t know or were unfamiliar with the great Dave Brubeck he passed away today. Below is his signature piece.

 

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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.