Print

MORNING AFTER REALITY CHECK

December 13, 2012

openingimage

It’s alleged that “pro-tax the rich” promoter Warren Buffett’s transaction with a massive Berkshire (BRK/A) buyback was a conspiracy to help the seller with estate taxes before the fiscal cliff. That’s what some conflicted people do vs what they say.

Jobless Claims fell substantially (343K vs 370K expected & prior revised higher to 372K). In my view analysts trying to estimate claims are just guessing now. Retail Sales were higher with the headline number missing expectations (.3% vs .6% expected & prior -.3%) & ex-autos & gas improved (.7% vs .5% & prior -.3%). PPI fell (-.8% vs -.5% & prior -.2%) core PPI rose (.1% vs .2% expected & prior -.2%). Remember it’s the “core” rate bulls and government wants you to watch. Nevertheless, headline writers focused on the headline rate.

Pimco’s Bill Gross discussed the Fed’s new monetary policies in a Bloomberg interview. In it he describes what the Fed is doing without dubbing it a PonziScheme. He nails it with this gem of a quote: “What really happens, and this is critically important, is the Treasury issues bonds and the Fed buys them and then remits interest to the Treasury.” Since he still needs to keep good communications with Bernanke & Co he’s not going to use the phrase for what QE actually is. The interesting thing about all this is bond prices (TLT) after the expanded QE operations are falling vs rising meaning the markets will determine the validity and usefulness of these policies.

Stocks followed through to the downside on renewed fiscal cliff worries, more negative comments from Boehner and Reid among others, and perhaps a lack of confidence in Bernanke’s press conference remarks. (Breaking: Boehner & Obama scheduled to meet at the WH at 5PM EST’) More games are being played with gold (GLD) as another mysterious seller reappeared in mid-afternoon trading in Japan driving the price down and catching stops. As you recall last week the same thing occurred which was curiously followed by a sell recommendation by Goldman Sachs.

The dollar (UUP) was slightly higher Thursday and commodities (DBC) weaker weighed down by energy (USO) and metals (DBB).

Volume was unremarkable once again but breadth per the WSJ was quite negative.

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  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • BRK/B WEEKLY

    BRK/B WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • XLK WEEKLY

    XLK WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IWM WEEKLY

    IWM WEEKLY

  • VIG WEEKLY

    VIG WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • JJG WEEKLY

    JJG WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWA WEEKLY

    EWA WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWS WEEKLY

    EWS WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY



Closing Comments

There was a late day “stick save” attempt as a leak developed that Boehner and Obama would meet at 5 PM. But markets know there may be many meeting shuttles in the next two weeks. Nevertheless, with each meeting, not to mention posturing and theatrics, the markets will respond sharply led by algos and HFTs.

It seems most economic doesn’t matter compared to the fiscal cliff. Perhaps by the time you read this everything will be settled but I fear not.

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Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.