Print

GOP TO TRY PLAN B

December 19, 2012

openingimage

Oddly, its Republicans offering a plan to raise taxes but on those with incomes over $1M (vs the WH $400K) and currently does not include spending cuts. The WH immediately stated it would veto this. The bottom line, this is a symbolic gesture since the Senate won’t even vote on it according to Harry Reid. The Republican ploy is to say they’ve voted to raise taxes on the rich. Then they would allow the country to go over the cliff after transmitting this vote and forcing the WH to “own” the damage. That must be their thinking. It’s a gamble obviously but Boehner’s base has shown no support for WH plans or to roll over and violate all their principles.

This left bulls somewhat shaken as stocks fell sharply after the GOP announcement but there are more rounds left in this stand-off. Stocks were overbought recently and a little rest was in order. In other words, Bulls had taken it as a given the cliff would be avoided. It still may be. We’ll just have to live with the volatility until a deal is done or not.

Housing Starts fell 3% but Building Permits rose 3.6%. The former data point is the more meaningful since some permits will never evolve into a “start”.

GM decided to buy back the shares the government owned at $27.50 yielding taxpayers a nearly 50% loss. Like it or not, that’s the math.

Bank of America (BAC) has $64 billion of mortgage delinquencies great than 6 months on their books—nearly half of their market cap. This is some of the looking under the hood investors aren’t spending time on. Those that do like Buffett must believe the Fed will monetize and/or backstop these loans.

The bullish case is quite simple: QEternity is flooding markets with liquidity that has few choices for returns beyond stocks.

The bearish case is more complex: Global economic data shows a contraction in GDP, commodity demand, earnings and evenues.

The dollar (UUP) was weaker as was gold (GLD). Commodities (DBC) were slightly weaker. Bonds (TLT) were stronger.

Volume was somewhat lighter than on Tuesday’s good rally. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed to negative.

Follow us on Twitter and join the conversation on Facebook

Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers to exit overbought/oversold conditions.

  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • GM WEEKLY

    GM WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • JJC WEEKLY

    JJC WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWA WEEKLY

    EWA WEEKLY

  • EWY WEEKLY

    EWY WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWD WEEKLY

    EWD WEEKLY

  • EWW WEEKLY

    EWW WEEKLY

  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY



Closing Comments

It’s hard to know what to make of fiscal cliff negotiations and tactics. The sides are gaming and bluffing things.

More from ETF Digest

  • Top 10 U.S Equity ETFs
  • Top 10 Fixed Income ETFs
  • Top 10 Global & International ETFs
  • Top 10 Alternative ETFs 

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.