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MARKETS STILL IN SLOW MOTION

January 16, 2013

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JP Morgan (JPM) earnings rose ($1.39 vs $1.16 estimates & revenues $24.38 vs $24.23 expected) while Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings were quite good ($5.60 vs $3.78 estimates & revenues $9.24 billion vs estimates of $7.91 billion). Other reports from insurer GenworthFinancial (GNW) and M&T Bank (MTB) were also positive in the financial (XLF) and bank sector (KBE).

Losers included Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) on higher food costs and Boeing (BA) as the Dreamliner fleet was grounded in Japan. Apple (AAPL) got a boost from timer Tom DeMark who claimed the stock had hit bottom from his view.

Economic data included: CPI (0.00% vs .1% expected & prior -.3% & core rate .1% vs .1% expected & prior .1%); Industrial Production (.3% vs .2% expected & prior 1.0%); Housing Market Index (47 vs 48 expected & prior 47) and the important Fed Beige Book showed little if any important economic growth. The employment component within the report was unchanged.

Overseas China reported the first decline in Foreign Direct Investment for the first time since 2009. The World Bank cut its global economic forecast to 2.4% vs 3% and the German government lowered its growth forecast to .4% vs .7% previously. For the most part these forecasts are just catching-up with reality.  The Fed will use this and other data to determine future monetary policies at their next meeting ending January 30th.

So called “currency wars” are emerging globally as countries attempt to trash their own to remain trade competitive. But, there are potential negative consequences to doing so as noted here.

The dollar (UUP) was slightly higher and so too was gold (GLD) once again. Stocks were led higher by tech on the Apple rally while financials (XLF) moved mostly sideways. Bonds (TLT) were once again higher as stocks appear out of oxygen after post fiscal cliff rally.

Volume is still missing even as markets seem well-managed at high levels. Breadth per the WSJ was negative.

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  • NYMO

    NYMO

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI

    NYSI

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX

    VIX

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • QQQ WEEKLY

    QQQ WEEKLY

  • AAPL WEEKLY

    AAPL WEEKLY

  • JPM WEEKLY

    JPM WEEKLY

  • GS WEEKLY

    GS WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • IEF WEEKLY

    IEF WEEKLY

  • LQD WEEKLY

    LQD WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • DBV WEEKLY

    DBV WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • JJG WEEKLY

    JJG WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • EWJ WEEKLY

    EWJ WEEKLY

  • VNM WEEKLY

    VNM WEEKLY

  • TUR WEEKLY

    TUR WEEKLY



Closing Comments

Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Housing Starts are on tap for Thursday. In addition earnings from Citigroup and Bank of America will be much watched.


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The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 



Disclaimer

Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.