The markets are overbought but this can continue longer than one might expect. Perhaps dangerously, investor sentiment remains universally bullish. It’s still a QE dominated market as liquidity is pushing markets higher even as earnings overall remain uninspiring.
For our part we took some profits Monday while the basic core of our main portfolio remains intact. On the downside Boeing (BA) continues to weaken with Dreamliner groundings and Caterpillar (CAT) is going to take a $580 million dollar charge after being hoodwinked by Chinese accountants—both held back industrial sector (XLI). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) disappointed driving consumer staples (XLP). Travelers (TRV) reported good earnings which helped lift financial sector (XLF).
Earnings from DuPont (DD), despite falling 70%, helped push the materials (XLB) sector higher. This is how QE trumps flat earnings.
Google (GOOG) reported earnings after the close that cheered investors although revenues seemed to miss. IBM (IBM) reported earnings that slightly beat estimates. Both stocks were substantially higher in after hours trading.
Economic news wasn’t inspiring as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell (.02 vs .28 expected & prior .10); Existing Home Sales fell missing estimates (4.94M vs 5.1M expected & prior revised lower from 5.05M to 4.99M easing the miss); and, the Richmond Fed Mfg Survey plunged (-12 vs 5 expected & prior 5). This disappointing data just stimulates bulls to thinking the Fed won’t take its foot off the gas pedal anytime soon. Domestically bank deposits in the 4th quarter soared to $433 billion per Nomura Securities.
Overseas the German ZEW economic expectations index soared (31.5 vs 9.5 expected) and the Bank of England said it would be rejoining the money printing (QE) operations. This is stimulative to the ongoing “currency war”. And to make matters bleak, global unemployment per the International LabourOrganization’s Global Employment 2013 trend asserts unemployment nears 200 million. (That’s a lot of food stamps!)
The dollar (UUP) was slightly weaker and gold (GLD) rose modestly. Commodities (DBC) were led higher by oil (USO) and natural gas stocks (FCG). Stocks are still moving higher glacially day by day on still light volume. Bonds (TLT) seemed well bid.
As indicated volume once again was light and breadth per the WSJ was positive.

Follow us on Twitter and join the conversation on Facebook
Premium members to the ETF Digest receive added signals when markets become extended such as DeMark triggers to exit overbought/oversold conditions.

The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
































Earnings news is good overall for some companies while others just meet lowered expectations. This week will feature plenty of earnings as we move toward the end of January in another week of trading. Bulls want to promote the “January Effect” where as goes January so goes the year.
The bottom line overall is the massive amounts of liquidity supporting buying even if it is on the light side.
More earnings are on tap for the rest of this week and then Thursday will feature more important economic data.
More from ETF Digest
Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current “trading” positions in active portfolios if any are embedded within charts: Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, UDN, GLD, DBC, DBB, DBA, USL, EFA, EEM, EWZ and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.