The Fed BS
0
August 26, 2016

8-26-2016 3-29-32 PM

Markets opened the trading day Friday with some confusion over just what to make of different takes between Fed Vice-Chair Fischer’s and Chair Yellen’s comments regarding monetary policies going forward. Initial reactions to these remarks were two sided but in the end settled in a state of confusion.

What made it so?

The view was recent economic data was trending positive enough to bear an interest rate increase in September. For many of us this is more than just a little amusing given more serious economic weakness as, weak GDP and consumer data. From my view the ongoing disconnect between obviously weak economic data (GDP and persistent unemployment data among others) remain more than just a little disturbing. In fact, they hint at deliberate data manipulation and cherry-picking of data making results fit goals rather than being more objective. Bottom line, in an election year political demands easily can interfere making results more seem spurious to many.

Is the Fed looking for an excuse to raise interest rates? This might be so since even they might acknowledge these have been held too low for too long.           

The Fed acknowledges even it has no idea what the future portends as the “fan chart” (below) displays the broad range it forecasts for the path ahead.

8-26-2016 3-43-09 PM

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

8-26-2016 3-44-00 PM

Volume rose Friday to complete an ultra-light volume week. Breadth per the WSJ was mixed to negative. 

8-26-2016 3-44-36 PM

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12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day

 

 

 

8-26-2016 3-45-08 PM USO

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HI/LO Indicators

As we enter the final week of the summer of 2016, the following is a list of ETFs with technical overbought or extended valuations.

 12-12-2014 2-32-30 AM Bull bear twitte

 

 

These numbers signify in the left column (buy to close short) or right column (sell to close long).

 8-26-2016 5-22-02 PM daily

8-26-2016 5-25-18 PM weekly 

8-26-2016 5-29-48 PM Monthly

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLP WEEKLY

    XLP WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • FXB WEEKLY

    FXB WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • DBB MONTHLY

    DBB MONTHLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.


     

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance. 

Make of conditions what you will.

For us markets are living on borrowed time. But that’s if the old rules of valuations and conditions hold true. That said, these aren’t even your big brother’s markets.

Let’s see what happens.

...

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

Named in the Top 10 ETF Blogs Every Serious ETF Investor Should Read in 2016.

Named as one of the Top 22 ETF Experts You Need To Follow on Twitter for continuing to deliver high quality analysis and commentary through the ETFDigest Twitter feed.

ETF Digest was named in the Top 50 Investing Blogs.

Ranked #16 in the Top 25 Best ETF Newsletters in 2015.

ETF Digest was awarded one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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