Markets End Quarter With Futile Window Dressing
September 30, 2014

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It was a good day for positive window displays but markets under the main indexes were still quite weak. So for those with bonuses on the line they had a good day.

Economic data reflected weakness but that helps the “bad news is good” crowd thus forestalling interest rate increases anytime soon. These included: PMI Mfg Index lower 60.5 vs 62 expected & prior 64.3; weakening Case-Shiller HPI -0.5% vs 1.3% expected & prior 1.00%; lower Chicago PMI 60.5 vs 62 expected & prior 64.3; and, weakening Consumer Confidence 86 vs 92.5 exp & prior 93.4.

European markets were stronger early as investors believed the ECB’s Draghi would pick-up the QE baton passed to him from the Fed’s Yellen. He’s been talking a good game but now it’s time for him to actually do it.

Hong Kong demonstrations continue but don’t seem to have affected China stocks too much as they rose as the government eased mortgage rates. A 2-day vacation is at hand in Hong Kong and that should bring out more not less demonstrators. In Beijing all this is much frowned upon and may bring out the army. Clearly, the Beijing has been prepared for any dissent and they won’t be patient now.

Late in the day there was more violence in Eastern Ukraine as 12 were killed in more shelling. Germany Angela Merkel has predicted a long period of trouble with Putin and Russia.

Leading market sectors higher included: Tech (XLK), Utilities (XLU), Thailand (THD), Indonesia (IDX), Italy (EWI), Mexico (EWW), Brazil Small Caps (BRF), Chile (ECH) and Dollar (UUP).

Leading market sectors lower included: Small Caps (IWM), Banks (KBE), Materials (XLB), Healthcare (XLV), Retail (XRT), Biotech (IBB), Homebuilders (ITB), Semiconductors (SMH), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Gold Miners (GDX), Silver Miners (SIL), Japan (EWJ), South Korea (EWY), UK (EWU), Germany (EWG), Austria (EWO), Solar (TAN), Timber (WOOD), Energy (XLE), Russia (RSX), Brazil EWZ), Gold (GLD), Crude Oil (USO), Copper (JJC), Silver (SLV), Euro (FXE), Agriculture (DBA) and Bonds (TLT).

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was high as we closed the quarter but breadth overall was quite negative.

9-30-2014 10-43-18 PM Diary

Charts of the Day

    SPY  5  MINUTE













    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.




    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.



    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise

Closing Summary

This report is short given that we’re working hard to transfer much data to new computers. It’s a pain but needs to be done.

As we start the month of October we’re greeted by ADP Employment Report, PMI Mfg Index, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending and EIA Petroleum Status Report.

Let’s see what happens.

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

He is the author of "Create Your own ETF Hedge Fund: A Do-It-Yourself Strategy for Private Wealth Management" published by Wiley Finance and "The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities, A Companion Guide to Building Your ETF Portfolio".


ETF Digest™

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at


ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,214.805.100.42 % 16:45
WTI Crude Futr90.76-0.40-0.44 %16:06
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB277.91-0.64-0.23 %16:28
US Dollar86.01-0.03-0.03 %16:21
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX16.740.432.64 % 16:07
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil2170.284-0.99 %-19.39 %-2.16 %
Russia611.1210.25 %-5.81 %-22.34 %
India500.634-0.24 %-1.50 %22.91 %
China61.666-1.26 %-6.75 %-2.28 %