Snake Oil Stats
0
July 02, 2015

7-2-2015 6-44-40 PM cURE

Economic reports today were mixed with some hard to believe.

The all-important Employment Report led the list of reports.

It showed 223K jobs created vs 230K expected & prior revised lower to 254K.

The Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.3% vs prior 5.5%. Naturally, the headline numbers are what Americans are fed and respond to.

Within the data however we see an only 62.6% Participation Rate meaning 93.6M Americans are out of the labor market.

Further, earnings for the period were disappointing dropping to 0.0% vs prior 0.2%. Most new jobs created were for restaurants, part time and other service jobs.

The data made sense since the follow-on was another drop in Factory Orders to -1.00% vs -0.3% & prior -0.7%. This meant since 2007 the so-called economic recovery lost 1.4M manufacturing jobs.

So the comments from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer’s comments Wednesday that “we’re nearing full employment” now make some sense if you only believe the headline data. The Fed then must believe the headline data will allow them to raise interest rates. This must be their thinking—ignore the real employment situation but count on headline spin to provide them with cover. Do you believe the American public is this stupid? Probably so.

Then again as we look at some market inconsistencies Thursday we see interest rate sectors (Bonds, Utilities, REITs and etc) yields falling while most high beta equity sectors (Small Caps, Energy and even Healthcare) were dropping.

Stocks wandered about most of the day in a sloppy manner as only emerging markets showed strength vs other equity sectors. Shakiness is due indirectly to another Greece referendum no doubt.

Leading market sectors higher included: Volatility (VIX), Utilities (XLU), REITs (IYR), Emerging Markets (EEM), Bonds (TLT), Gold Stocks (GDX), Brazil (EWZ), Russia (RSX), UK (EWU), Australia (EWA), Hong Kong (EWH), Indonesia (IDX), Mexico (EWW), Latin America (ILF), and Natural Gas (UNG).

Leading market sectors lower included: Financials (XLF), Banks (KBE), Regional Banks (KRE), Small Caps (IWM), Healthcare (XLV), Hedged Europe (HEDJ), Crude Oil (USO), Shanghai (PEK), PowerShares Golden Dragon (PGJ), China Small Caps (HAO) and Shenzhen (CNXT).

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was lighter and breadth per the WSJ was mixed.

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7-2-2015 6-46-12 PM Diary

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPY DAILY

    SPY DAILY

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLP WEEKLY

    XLP WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • IBB WEEKLY

    IBB WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT  WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • GDX WEEKLY

    GDX WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • EWG WEEKLY

    EWG WEEKLY

  • GREK WEEKLY

    GREK WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • RSX WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • FXI WEEKLY

    FXI WEEKLY

  • HAO WEEKLY

    HAO WEEKLY

  • PEK WEEKLY

    PEK WEEKLY

  • CNXT WEEKLY

    CNXT WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.


 

Well, that was the week that was.

Obviously markets remain shaky and looking for direction as trends are breaking down.

The Employment Report was quite misleading but no doubt the media and financial media, addicted to their advertisers, will spin the report as great.

That in turn should get consumers out spending money buying cars and houses. Ignored in all of it is the truth.

Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Let’s see what happens.

 

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001. ETF Digest was named one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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ETF Digest™
 

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,166.70-2.60-0.22 %17:15
WTI Crude Futr55.52-1.41-2.48 %12:59
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB224.550.490.22 % 20:20
US Dollar96.380.090.10 % 13:00
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX16.790.704.35 % 07/02
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil1643.5960.94 %0.07 % -10.30 %
Russia511.5400.40 %-0.25 %26.33 %
India506.9690.31 %1.24 % 2.13 %
China73.701-0.91 %-0.92 %11.60 %