Fed: See You In September
0
July 29, 2015

7-29-2015 5-32-41 PM

Okay, that’s over with. Now we enter the slow, but sometimes rocky, end of summer month.

And speaking of month endings, let’s remember bulls wanted a good end-of-month rally to put some lipstick on what was a volatile and tough month of July.

What’s the takeaway from today’s Fed meeting? They insist job growth is “solid”. That means they’ve tossed those millions not in the labor force as no longer worth mentioning. Further, the quality of new jobs is mostly in low paying service and part time employment. Next the Fed moves to inflation which is below their 2% target. They state oil prices have “stabilized” which seems amusing frankly and further state long term inflation has remained “stable” (Let’s call it what it really is: “deflation”.)

Markets reacted positively believe perhaps there won’t be an interest rate hike in September given the “real” economic news globally. China is now a heavy weight on declining economic growth. Low demand for commodities overall reflects a weakening in economic demand. That spills over to developed and emerging markets as well.

For instance, Wednesday Pending Home Sales fell to -0.1% vs 1.00% expected & prior lowered from 0.9% to 0.6%. This follows a weak New Home Sales and declining Case-Shiller Home Price data and Consumer Confidence also took it on the chin Tuesday. Also United Parcel Service while reporting better earnings, warned of economic weakness ahead.

Leading market sectors higher included: Everything.

Leading market sectors lower included: Bonds (TLT) and Volatility (VIX).

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was decent but low as Fed days go. Breadth per the WSJ was positive although Money Flow wasn’t inspiring.

7-29-2014 5-10-44 PM Diary

 

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

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  • SPY DAILY

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  • SPX WEEKLY

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  • INDU DAILY

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  • IBB WEEKLY

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  • IYT WEEKLY

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  • XLU WEEKLY

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  • HYG WEEKLY

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  • TLT WEEKLY

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  • FXE WEEKLY

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  • RSX WEEKLY

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  • EPI WEEKLY

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  • GXC WEEKLY

    GXC WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

     

 

Dip buying returns which has been the hallmark of every downturn since 2009. This is attributed central planning for markets and the economy.

One wonders about the new love for socialism given the history of failed states and what’s occurring in Venezuela.

Let’s see what happens.

 

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001. ETF Digest was named one of the most informative ETF websites in the 10th Annual Global ETF Awards.



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Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,088.80-8.90-0.81 %16:15
WTI Crude Futr48.52-0.27-0.55 %15:42
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB204.72-0.77-0.37 %15:48
US Dollar97.590.360.37 % 16:03
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX12.22-0.28-2.24 %15:48
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil1454.3773.16 %-11.45 %-20.63 %
Russia471.1153.40 %-8.14 %16.35 %
India500.7190.76 %-0.01 %0.87 %
China66.3680.70 %-10.77 %0.50 %