Investors Wait For Employment Report
March 05, 2015

U.S. stocks ignored weak economic data and rose tentatively Thursday as investors await the important Friday’s employment report.

Plenty of data today continues the disconnect between economic data and equity prices.

Beginning in China new information from the government asserts the economy may decline to 7%. At the same time a report from research company Cornerstone suggests that number could be halved given their analysis. In the U.S. economic data included a surprising spike in Jobless Claims spiked (energy layoffs?) to 320K vs 300K expected & prior 313K. Productivity was down to -2.2% vs -2.3% expected & prior 3.9%, Costs were much higher 4.1% vs 0.2% expected & prior -1.00%.

Lastly, Factory Orders dropped for the sixth month in a row to -0.2% vs 0.2% expected & prior -3.5%. As the chart below demonstrates when Factory Orders are in this condition a recession follows.

3-5-2015 5-53-08 PM SEASONAL

Mario Draghi today launched the ECB’s long awaited $1 trillion QE program which allowed European stocks to rally. Left out of the plan are Crete and Greece which caused some heckling at the meeting.

But BRIC areas have seen great difficulties especially with the political and oil crisis in Brazil.

Leading market sectors higher included: REITs (IYR), Biotech (IBB), Utilities (XLU), Japan (EWJ), Hedged Japan (DXJ), Russia (RSX), European Monetary Union (EZU), Hedged Europe (HEDJ), Dollar (UUP) and Natural Gas (UNG).

Leading market sectors lower included: Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), China (FXI), Hong Kong (EWH), Brazil (EWZ), Euro (FXE), Turkey (TUR) and Crude Oil (USO).  

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was ultra-light and breadth per the WSJ was modestly positive.

3-5-2015 5-54-06 PM dIARY


Charts of the Day

    SPY  5  MINUTE












    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.



    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.



    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

There’s little point in highlighting more charts this day as not much has changed from Thursday. There should be more action Friday.

Markets basically continue to scoff at bad economic data relying instead on QE from abroad and ZIRP induced buybacks at home. That’s about the size of things. We’re still basically long since that’s our job. Nevertheless we know where the exit door is.

Let’s see what happens.

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Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest, MarketWatch columnist and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

He is the author of "Create Your own ETF Hedge Fund: A Do-It-Yourself Strategy for Private Wealth Management" published by Wiley Finance and "The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities, A Companion Guide to Building Your ETF Portfolio".


ETF Digest™

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at


ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,182.70-16.30-1.36 %09:10
WTI Crude Futr50.60-0.16-0.32 %08:38
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB221.43-0.68-0.31 %08:48
US Dollar97.370.971.00 % 09:03
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX14.04-0.19-1.34 %03/05
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil1632.861-0.35 %-6.65 %-10.89 %
Russia498.6092.39 %1.04 % 23.14 %
India549.0180.12 %0.66 % 10.60 %
China67.875-0.40 %-2.65 %2.78 %