Mixed Market To Start April
0
April 01, 2015

Market was quite mixed Wednesday. U.S. markets sagged once again but commodity sensitive overseas markets rallied.

Economic data Wednesday featured more disappointments including: ADP Employment Report 189K vs 230K expected & prior 214K; ISM Mfg Index fell to 51.5 vs 52.5 expected & prior 52.9; PMI Manufacturing Index barely higher at 55.7 vs 55.3 expected & prior 55.1; Construction Spending fell again as revisions were much weaker at -0.1% vs 0.2% expected & prior -1.7% and Oil Inventories rose once again to 4.8 million BBLs vs 4.2 million BBLs expected.

Despite rising oil inventories again a short squeeze developed as some thought inventories would rise to 5.2 million BBLs and Iran talks failed at the deadline. Nevertheless Russia exclaimed talks had reached agreement on basic issues. An explosion a Pemex oil rig in the gulf also caused prices to rise. Lastly rebel attacks In Yemen and takeover of strategic petroleum shipping area near Mocha adds to the tension.

There is a chorus of pundits suggesting stocks are mispriced and only benefitting from central bank policies. Wednesday Janus Fund’s Bill Gross was saying much the same. Yesterday ETF Digest subscriber David Hurwitz offered his analysis given high margin debt.

NYSE margin debt rose in February to $464,933 billion and thus broke above its 12 month moving average. Hence, the potential sell signal has been rendered moot at least temporarily.

4-1-2015 6-06-17 PM nyse

Nevertheless, Feb margin debt remains below the Feb, 2014 level of 465,720, as shown below:

4-1-2015 6-06-50 PM BILLIONS

And, thus the potential for another sell signal is reasonably probable.

Leading market sectors higher included: Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Crude Oil (USO), Emerging Markets (EEM), EAFE (EFA), European Monetary Union (EZU), Europe (IEV), Russia (RSX), Brazil (EWZ), India (EPI), Mexico (EWW), Germany (EWG), South Africa (EZA) Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC), China (FXI), Hong Kong (EWH), Bonds (TLT) and others.

Leading market sectors lower included: S&P 500 (SPY), Dow (DIA), Oil & Gas Exploration Producers (XOP), Small Caps (IWM), Mid-Caps (MDY), Tech (QQQ), Healthcare (XLV), Biotech (IBB), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Retail (XRT), Homebuilders (ITB), Industrials (XLI),                                        

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was elevated once again while breadth per the WSJ was mixed.

Sign up to become a premium member of the ETF Digest and receive more of our detailed charts with actionable alerts.

You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and like us on facebook.

4-1-2015 6-07-51 PM dIARY

 

 

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPY DAILY

    SPY DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLP WEEKLY

    XLP WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • IBB WEEKLY

    IBB WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT  WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • FXY WEEKLY

    FXY WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • GDX WEEKLY

    GDX WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • VGK WEEKLY

    VGK WEEKLY

  • EWZ MONTHLY

    EWZ MONTHLY

  • RSX MONTHLY

    RSX MONTHLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • FXI WEEKLY

    FXI WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.


 

“Trading places” is how to describe Wednesday’s trading as overseas commodity related markets rallied while US markets fell on weak data.

But weak data means a later rise in interest rate or the prior “bad news is good” theme remains with us.

Thursday yields economic data including: Challenger Job Cuts; International Trade; Jobless Claims and Factory Orders. Also Janet Yellen will be speaking early.

Although markets are closed Friday the government is still releasing Employment Report meaning there’s no way for ordinary folks to react unless they can trade overseas.

Let’s see what happens.

 

Sign up to become a premium member of the ETF Digest and receive more of our detailed charts with actionable alerts.

You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and become a fan of ETF Digest on facebook.

...

Headshot David Fry xsmall

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

He is the author of "Create Your own ETF Hedge Fund: A Do-It-Yourself Strategy for Private Wealth Management" published by Wiley Finance and "The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities, A Companion Guide to Building Your ETF Portfolio"



Archives
Disclaimer

ETF Digest™
 

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,204.1020.401.72 % 04/01
WTI Crude Futr49.551.954.10 % 17:14
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB216.124.262.01 % 17:28
US Dollar98.51-0.02-0.02 %17:00
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX15.11-0.18-1.18 %16:14
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil1548.2611.75 %-11.49 %-15.50 %
Russia480.2920.39 %-2.67 %18.61 %
India522.0590.38 %-4.28 %5.17 %
China71.3980.59 %2.41 % 8.12 %