Markets Are Never Logical
0
July 28, 2014

7-28-2014 4-39-32 PM Spock

Logical? That would be too much to expect or ask. For example, take this announcement late in the day from Bloomberg stating “Treasuries Fall With Fed Forecast to Trim Debt-Buying at Meeting”. Well, who the hell didn’t know QE was ending in October?

Markets were weak throughout most of the day on really crappy economic data. The included a sharp drop in Pending Home Sales of -1.1% vs 0,3/% expected & prior 6%. (Did it snow somewhere?) That was preceded by a flat PMI Services Index Flash to 61 vs 69 expected & prior 61.2.

Equities were weak early but picked-up some steam as Long Aussie Dollar/Short Japanese Yen kicked-in which has routinely followed or led SPY buy programs as dip buyers were given a reason to launch some buy programs as ZH chart below shows:

7-28-2014 6-04-54 PM audjpy

We’d like to welcome Scott Murray as a guest commentator. Today he writes about United States Oil (USO) and Oil Futures Spot Price.

Anyway despite all the weak data lately we still find people who can spin things in their own unique way. Take this nugget from a MarketWatch interview: “We are not shocked with the home sales numbers because demographic trends are underpinning those numbers. A much higher proportion of young people is living with their parents, as they are weighed down by student debt and stagnant wages,” said Patty Edwards, managing director and portfolio manager at US Bank Wealth Management. “Still, the economy is slowly improving and we expect companies to continue to grow their earnings. This market is more and more earnings driven and we are watching softer revenue growth, though no alarm bells are going off yet,” she added. Reposted without comment.

Leading market sectors higher included: REITs (IYC), Utilities (XLU), Gold Miners (GDX), Silver (SLV), China (FXI), Market Vectors China (PEK), China Small Caps (HAO), South Korea (EWY), Indonesia (IDX), Hong Kong (EWH), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), Base Metals (DBB) and Emerging Markets (EEM).

Leading market sectors lower included: Banks (KBE), Regional Banks (KRE), Transports (IYT), Industrials (XLI), Oil & Gas Services (OIH), Homebuilders (ITB), Biotech (IBB), Consumer Staples (XLP), Small Caps (IWM), Austria (EWO), Germany (EWG), Russia (RSX), Sweden (EWD), Crude Oil (USO) and Silver.

The top 20 market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

7-28-2014 6-06-23 PM dIARY

 

Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • FDN WEEKLY

    FDN WEEKLY

  • SOCL WEEKLY

    SOCL WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • KBE WEEKLY

    KBE WEEKLY

  • KRE WEEKLY

    KRE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • ICF WEEKLY

    ICF WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • GDX WEEKLY

    GDX WEEKLY

  • SLV WEEKLY

    SLV WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • DBA WEEKLY

    DBA WEEKLY

  • DBC WEEKLY

    DBC WEEKLY

  • VEA WEEKLY

    VEA WEEKLY

  • VGK WEEKLY

    VGK WEEKLY

  • VWO WEEKLY

    VWO WEEKLY

  • EWZ WEEKLY

    EWZ WEEKLY

  • RSX WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

  • EPI WEEKLY

    EPI WEEKLY

  • FXI WEEKLY

    FXI WEEKLY

  • PEK WEEKLY

    PEK WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO DAILY

    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.


     

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY

    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.


     

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY

    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.


     

 

Closing Summary

Tuesday yields more earnings and economic data with the latter including S&P Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday through Friday is when the fireworks should really begin.

Let’s see what happens.

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...

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest and has been covering U.S. and global ETFs since 2001.

He is the author of "Create Your own ETF Hedge Fund: A Do-It-Yourself Strategy for Private Wealth Management" published by Wiley Finance and "The Best ETFs: U.S. Equities, A Companion Guide to Building Your ETF Portfolio".



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ETF Digest™
 

Disclaimer: The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell only any security. Market sectors and related ETF's are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotation's aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com

 

ETF Digest

Market Summary
NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index NYSE Composite Index S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index Russell 2000 Small Cap Index 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Gold Bugs Index Morgan Stanley High Tech 35 Index Market Chart
Commodity Quote Change Change % NY
Gold1,305.501.000.08 % 02:30
WTI Crude Futr101.40-0.27-0.27 %01:58
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
CRB298.31-0.03-0.01 %17:28
US Dollar81.10-0.01-0.02 %17:00
Index Quotes Change Change % Local
VIX12.56-0.13-1.02 %07/28
MSCI Value Daily MTD YTD
Brazil2551.940-0.45 %6.76 % 15.05 %
Russia659.720-2.81 %-10.77 %-16.16 %
India500.739-0.31 %1.65 % 22.94 %
China65.7790.90 %6.97 % 4.24 %